|
The August U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report has been updated
with major changes. Weather and market forces were responsible for farmers
planting significantly more corn and fewer acres soybeans. Corn acres
were increased by about twenty percent over the 2006 acres, resulting
in about fifteen percent fewer acres of soybeans. Growers in Illinois
and Iowa showed the largest reduction in soybean acres compared to last
year by reducing soybean plantings by 1.75 and 1.35 million acres, respectively.
Large declines were also seen across the Corn Belt and Great Plains
with planted acreages down more than a million acres from last year
in Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska. Small increases in soybean plantings
in the Southeast and Northeast were noted, but relatively insignificant
compared to the large reductions in the Midwest.
With soybean yields still to be determined by late summer temperatures,
rainfall and disease/pest induced plant stresses; the final size of
the 2007 soybean crop is still unknown, but anticipated to be about
fifteen percent smaller than the 2006 crop. It should be noted that
with an ideal late summer growing conditions and average soybean yields
on the trend lines, soybean supplies could be increased.
The good news for the feed formulator is that the carryover of 2006
soybean stocks, together with the 2007 soybean production, will provide
ample soybean for the domestic crush. In fact, the estimated soybean
crush this crop year is slightly larger than last year. USDA is anticipating
that the larger soybean crush will result in greater domestic use and
exports of soybean meal.
|
SOYBEAN PRODUCTION DATA |
|
|
| Crop
Year (*) |
|
2006/07(**) |
2007/08(***) |
%
Change |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| Acres Planted
(million acres) |
75.5 |
|
64.1 |
|
-15.1 |
 |
|
|
|
| Acres Harvested
(million acres) |
74.6 |
|
63.3 |
|
15.1 |
 |
|
|
|
| Yield (bushels/acre) |
42.7 |
|
41.5 |
|
-2.8 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| SOYBEAN
SUPPLY AND USE (Million of bushels) |
 |
| Beginning
Stocks |
449 |
|
575 |
|
+28.1 |
 |
|
| Production |
3,188 |
|
2,625 |
|
-17.7 |
 |
|
| Imports |
4 |
|
4 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
| Total Supply |
3,642 |
|
3,205 |
|
-12.0 |
 |
|
 |
| Crush |
1,785 |
|
1,800 |
|
+0.8 |
|
|
| Exports |
1,100 |
|
1,020 |
|
-7.3 |
 |
|
| Seed and
Residue |
171 |
|
164 |
|
-4.1 |
 |
|
| Total Use |
3,066 |
|
2,985 |
|
-2.7 |
|
|
 |
| SOYBEAN
MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE (Million short tons) |
| Beginning
Stocks |
0.314 |
|
0.300 |
|
-4.5 |
 |
|
|
|
| Production |
42.521 |
|
42.835 |
|
+0.7 |
|
|
|
|
| Imports |
0.165 |
|
0.165 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Total Supply |
43.000 |
|
43.300 |
|
+0.7 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| Domestic
Use |
34.150 |
|
34.600 |
|
+1.3 |
|
|
|
|
| Exports |
8.550 |
|
8.250 |
|
-3.5 |
 |
|
|
|
| Total Use |
42.700 |
|
43.000 |
|
+0.7 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| Average
[roce ($/ton) |
$205. |
|
$200-230. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
(*) Marketing
year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for meal.
(**) Estimate
(***) Projection |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|