| |
The
U.S. Department of Agriculture first estimates for the 2006/07 soybean
crop are listed in the table. USDA is projecting soybean production
in the coming year to be 3,080 million bushels based on an average
year of 40.7 bushels per acre on 76.9 million acres planted. These
values will change as more becomes known about the 2006/07 soybean
production season. Initial estimates of soybean grower intentions
may significantly increase the total production of soybeans in 2006.
Data on soybean planting intentions are provided later in the newsletter.
The domestic soybean crush is currently estimated at 1,750 million
bushels with exports estimated at 1,090 million bushels. USDA is
forecasting a record 650 million bushel carryout, which is the largest
carryout in the past twenty years. Soybean exports are under pressure
due to weak soybean sales to EU-25 countries and variable sales
to China. The increased production of soybeans in South America
adds to the world supply of soybeans and maintains pressure on holding
soybean prices to a range of $5.10-5.80 in the current marketing
year.
Domestic use of soybean meal for 2006/07 is projected to be 34,250
million tons or about two percent greater than the current crop
year. This value is slightly greater than the past three marketing
years. The total supply of soybean meal should reduce the average
price of meal, which USDA estimates will average $155-185 for the
crop year. Lower prices and increased supplies are expected to encourage
domestic meal use. The big unknown remains whether these estimates
may be significantly impacted by some external factor that causes
a major reduction in meal consumption by domestic poultry or swine.
Soybean meal exports are estimated to increase in the 2006/07 marketing
year; lower world prices for soybean meal should work to discourage
world soybean production and stimulate consumption and trade of
soybean meal. A greater world demand for soybean meal may increase
U.S. meal exports. |
| SOYBEAN
PRODUCTION DATA |
| Crop
Year (*) |
2003/04(**) |
|
2004/05(***) |
|
2005/06(***) |
|
2006/07(***) |
|
|
|
(MillionAcres) |
|
| Acres
Planted |
73.4 |
|
|
|
75.2 |
|
|
|
|
72.1 |
|
|
|
|
76.9 |
|
|
| Acres
Harvested |
72.5 |
|
|
|
74.0 |
|
|
|
|
71.4 |
|
|
|
|
75.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
(Bushels/Acre) |
|
| Yield |
33.9 |
|
|
|
42.2 |
|
|
|
|
43.3 |
|
|
|
|
40.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| SOYBEAN
SUPPLY AND USE |
|
|
|
(Million
of Bushels) |
|
| Beginning
Stocks |
178 |
|
|
|
|
|
112 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
256 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
565 |
|
|
|
|
| Production |
2,454 |
|
|
|
|
|
3,124 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,086 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,080 |
|
|
|
|
| Imports |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
| Total Supply |
2,638 |
|
|
|
|
|
3,242 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,346 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,649 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Crush |
1,530 |
|
|
|
|
|
1,696 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,720 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,750 |
|
|
|
|
| Exports |
887 |
|
|
|
|
|
1,103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
900 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,090 |
|
|
|
|
| Seed and Residue |
110 |
|
|
|
|
|
187 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
161 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
159 |
|
|
|
|
| Total Use |
2,525 |
|
|
|
|
|
2,986 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,781 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ending Stocks |
112 |
|
|
|
|
|
256 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
565 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
650 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| SOYBEAN
MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE |
|
|
|
(Million
Short Tons) |
|
| Beginning Stocks |
|
|
0.220 |
|
|
|
|
0.211 |
|
|
|
|
0.172 |
|
|
|
|
0.250 |
|
| Production |
|
|
36.325 |
|
|
|
|
40.717 |
|
|
|
|
40.513 |
|
|
|
41.685 |
|
| Imports |
|
|
0.285 |
|
|
|
|
0.147 |
|
|
|
|
0.165 |
|
|
|
0.165 |
|
| Total Supply |
|
|
36.830 |
|
|
|
|
41.075 |
|
|
|
|
41.850 |
|
|
|
42.100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Domestic Use |
|
|
31.449 |
|
|
|
|
33.563 |
|
|
|
|
33.650 |
|
|
|
34.250 |
|
| Exports |
|
|
5.170 |
|
|
|
|
7.340 |
|
|
|
|
6.950 |
|
|
|
7.600 |
|
| Total Use |
|
|
36.619 |
|
|
|
|
40.903 |
|
|
|
|
40.700 |
|
|
|
41.850 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ending Stocks |
|
|
0.211 |
|
|
|
|
0.172 |
|
|
|
|
0.250 |
|
|
|
0.250 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
($/Short
Ton) |
|
| Average Price |
|
$256. |
|
|
|
|
|
$183. |
|
|
|
$175. |
|
|
|
$155.-185. |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (*) Marketing
year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for meal |
| (**)
Estimate and projections (***) from the National Agricultural Statistics
Service |
Ref.:
U.S.D.A. Economic Research Service, Oil Corps Outlook/OCS-06d,
May 15, 2006
|
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  |
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TEXT VERSION |
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The SOYBEAN
MEAL INFORMATION CENTER is sponsored by the Soybean Checkoff: Including
the checkoff boards from, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska,
North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Kentucky and the United Soybean
Board |
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