The March, USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicated that U.S. farmers will reduce 2011 soybean plantings to 76.6 million acres from 77.4 million last year.  This decrease will be the result of plans to increase corn acreage in the Midwest and cotton plantings in the South.  The actuate acreage planted to these three crops could be changed with weather conditions that delay corn plantings and encourage greater double-cropping of soybeans following winter wheat harvest in the Mid-south and South.

While soybean planting may be reduced this year, USDA is predicting a near record 2011 soybean crop.  Soybean production is estimated at 3.329 billion bushels which is about the same as last year’s crop (3.359 billion bushels).  Soybean yields are being predicted to be near the record 2010 yields (43.5 vs. 44.4 bushels per acre; realizing that the weather during the summer will determine the final yields.

Domestic soybean meal production is estimated to be lower than last year (39.5 vs. 41.70 million short tons); probably reflecting the higher soybean price, lower export market demands for soybeans, and the weakened livestock/poultry demand for meal.  The estimated price for soybean meal is predicted in the range of $280-330, which is below average for the recent years.   All of these estimated values will be changed as additional information is obtained.  The Soybean Meal INFOsource Newsletter will update the soybean supply and use information as the season progresses.

Global soybean output in 2010/11 is forecast at a record 261 million metric tons, surpassing last season’s total of 260.2 million.  In Brazil, record soybean yields are expected to raise its 2010/11 crop to 72 million tons.  Similarly, a better soybean yield forecast for Paraguay this month raised the 2010/11 production estimate to 8.1 million tons.

World Soybean Supply and Use Projected in 2010/2011 (Million Metric Tons)*