U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimates last month based on lower yield prospects, especially in areas that have experienced drought during the summer. The soybean crush was raised 25 million bushels due to stronger projected domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports were reduced 45 million bushels to 975 million bushels as stronger domestic demand limits exportable supplies. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 215 million bushels, which are down 61 percent from 2006/07 levels. USDA estimates that soybean meal prices will average between $205-$235 during this crop year. Bottom line is that the U.S. 2007 soybean crop is short; the soybean crush continues to grow at the expense of reduced soybean exports and soybean inventories in storage; and the feed formulator will be required to pay a little more this year for soybean meal.

Global oilseed meal production for 2007/08 is projected at 160.3 million metric tons of which U.S. meal production is forecast at 39.36 million metric tons, and foreign meal production is estimated at 120.93 million tons. The following table provides 2007/08 estimates of soybean meal production and use. About eighty percent of the meal produced in the U.S. is used domestically in animal and poultry feeds and twenty percent exported, whereas most of the meal produced in Argentina is exported and in China most of the meal produced is used domestically. The importance of meal exports to the EU-27 countries can be seen since soybean meal production is significantly less than their meal needs.